The future of motoring
09 December 2009
The combination of environmental concerns and predicted future oil shortages means the automotive landscape is changing.
Careful around those corners – you’re driving an endangered species.
However shiny your car, however new off the lot, it is a dinosaur with a limited life span. Within a few decades, the petrol-driven vehicle will be close to extinction.
When the petrol-fuelled car was born, no one could have dreamed 600 million would one day roam the roads.
The car evolved when it was still thought oil reserves were unlimited. Now, it is just too thirsty for a world where fossil fuels are becoming more scarce.
The world already consumes around 85 million barrels of oil a day, according to the International Energy Agency, roughly on par with what is produced.
By 2020, it is likely daily demand will exceed 110 million.
But although there is a lot of oil remaining, much of it is not easily accessible or is in countries with less-than-amicable relations with Western nations, which all adds up to a challenging future for the car unless it changes its diet.
So what’s ahead in a future where oil is scarce? Will petrol simply become too expensive? Will governments pay people to scrap their vehicles? Will they slash taxes on alternative-fuel cars? Or will some discovery give oil-guzzlers new life?
Cars will continue “The car is going to be with us for generations to come, but we have to figure out how to minimise its impact on the environment,” said RAC Head of Member Advocacy Matt Brown.
“All our surveys of motorists and members show people are concerned about the impact of their vehicle on the environment and they see alternative vehicles, followed by alternative fuels, as the best way of tackling that problem.”
Those alternative vehicles include the growing number of electric and hybrid cars being marketed, although few as yet are sold here in Australia.
“At the recent Frankfurt Motor Show what was remarkable was not only the number of manufacturers who had electric cars, but who had multiple models,” Mr Brown said. “Quite clearly the international market is
moving towards alternative vehicle technology and Australia can’t afford to be left behind.”
Australian developments Dr Andrew Simpson is a Senior Research Fellow with Curtin’s Sustainable Policy Institute, whose work includes looking at ways to get electric and hybrid vehicles onto Australian roads, working with industry to develop so-called “intelligent” electricity grids and encouraging the use of renewable energy.
He believes the future of green motoring is almost here and before long, people will plug their electric or hybrid car into the electricity grid at home to recharge the battery or pull into a service station to swap their flat battery for a charged one.
When the car is parked, the battery will be able to act as a generator, putting excess energy back into the intelligent grid.
“It is going to happen within 10 years. I’m quite convinced of that. There will be a couple of products on the Australian market within the next three years,” he said.
“The utility industry is already rolling out the intelligent grid concept. Australia is maybe a couple of years behind but it is definitely coming in.”
Dr Simpson said driving habits may need to alter, to take into account the shorter range that electrics and hybrids have compared to petrol cars, but new methods of quick recharging and battery swapping should reduce any inconvenience.
“People will be plugging their car in and recharging it rather than filing it up with petrol,” he said.
“The other big difference for motorists is that vehicles are going to be much, much cheaper to run because the cost of running on electricity is about a quarter of the cost of running on petrol per kilometre. And that’s without the reduced maintenance of an electric vehicle.
Obstacles to overcome There are some major issues that need to be resolved before we reach that point, however, including where and how electric vehicles are recharged.
“They are problematic in a number of ways: one is, where are you getting your power from?” said Luke O’Donoghue, Director of Sustainable Transport Energy with the WA Department of Transport.
“If you are charging from the grid your greenhouse benefits might be fairly marginal as most of the grid is powered by coal and gas-fired power stations, although that is anticipated to change over time with the introduction of renewable energy targets and emissions trading schemes.
“The other question is where will people recharge? Will they be charging at home or will they be using public recharging facilities at work or at the shops? And if so, what sort of load will be put on the electricity network and is it strong enough?”
Mr O’Donoghue said WA is working to answer some of these questions, and his department has teamed up with university partners to apply for research funding to look at how electrical recharging stations might be introduced in Perth.
Despite these logistical issues, though, he says everyone from Governments to car manufacturers recognise that change is necessary.
When will we run out of oil? Debate rages about how much oil remains, or even if we have reached “peak” oil, the point at which global demand begins to outstrip supply.
BP, in its annual statistical review of oil supplies, argues there are another 42 years of production at current rates before the depletion of proved oil reserves (known reservoirs where oil can reasonably be recovered in the future).
Then there are probable and possible reserves that could keep production going.
But other groups are much less optimistic: The London-based Oil Depletion Analysis Centre says more than 50 oil-producing countries, including the US, have passed peak production, with only a few nations clustered in the Persian Gulf likely to possess large supplies in a decade or so.
Among Western nations, only Canada has large amounts of oil still remaining.
A CSIRO-led forum into the future of fuel suggested a global oil peak could occur by 2013.
Turning the yellow van green As the independent voice for road users in Western Australia, the RAC takes the issue of greener motoring seriously – even if that means a shift in thinking.
The 104-year-old organisation is looking at more sustainable ways to move its members, be it by car, bus, train, bike or on foot.
“We know our members and all motorists are concerned about the impact of the car on the environment so we’re assisting members to understand how they can reduce the impact of their car, while maintaining their mobility.
This includes promoting green star car ratings and educating members about eco-driving to save fuel and money,” said Louise Avon-Smith, RAC Senior Manager of Environment and Sustainability.
The RAC is also looking at greening its 165-vehicle fleet, which travels more than 4 million km a year.
Ms Avon-Smith said that the organisation has been offsetting emissions produced by the vehicles since 2002.
“We have done a variety of offsets to cancel out these emissions. In the past we planted trees, more recently we have been offsetting through BP’s Global Choice program which undertakes a number
of Australian-based carbon reduction projects.”
Ms Avon-Smith also said that measures are in place to ensure emissions are as low as possible across its operations.
“For our fleet this means we select efficient vehicles and have the cars regularly serviced,” she said. “It is important they are reliable and don’t break down but also it means they run more efficiently.”