Which of the cars we drive now may be classics in the future?

By Byron Mathioudakis

Like many things in life, reputations fluctuate over time. One minute you’re hot and the next you’re not. So, what makes an ordinary car extraordinary? For this feature, we are really only looking at mainstream and affordable vehicles. This means we are ignoring high-end sports, luxury, and super cars like the Porsches, Bentleys, and Ferraris. These are so expensive and inherently low-volume when new, that they are basically born to be collectable. There are many factors at play that help turn a common car into a classic, and it is essential to take a look back in time to understand why.

What makes a classic a classic?

How do you pick a future classic? There seem to be a few recurring factors you should look out for. To kick things off, and as more than one car company executive puts it, good design sells cars. It is why Holden’s pleasant VT/VX Commodores (1997-2000/2000-2002) comfortably outsold the provocative Ford AU Falcon (1998-2002), despite the latter arguably considered to be the better proposition.

Given all things are equal, that’s why the handsome Holden EH (1963-1965) and Ford XY Falcon (1970-1972) are worth more than their ungainly HD (1965- 1966) and XA (1972-1973) successors, respectively. And why, though essentially the same ute underneath, the Mazda BT-50 (2011-2020) could never reel in the Ford PX Ranger (2011-2022). The rarity of a car may seem like an obvious indicator, as the number of survivors will only lessen over time, but it’s not always a hard and fast rule. Popularity is also an important ingredient.

Common models like the Holden T-series Gemini (1975-1985) are considered desirable today, as most either rusted away or were destroyed through misuse. Yet a contemporary like the Renault 12 (1970- 1979) is worth peanuts by comparison.

Familiarity and relatability play their parts, too. Australia’s two top-selling cars 50 years ago, the Holden HJ Kingswood (1974-1976) and Ford XB Falcon (1973-1976), commonly breach $30,000 or more today, even in base six-cylinder specification.

But the much, much rarer Rover P6 3500 (1969-1978), which sold in tiny numbers, was acclaimed as one of the most advanced sedans of its time, and yet it can be had for one-tenth of that in comparable condition.

That’s largely due to cultural significance. The aforementioned Kingswood and Falcon examples were Australian-made, affordable, and ubiquitous as family and fleet cars alike, serving as a backdrop to the collective personal memories and nostalgia of a bygone era, which ultimately fuels a car’s resale values.

This doesn’t just apply to locally made cars either.

The Volkswagen T1 and T2 vans known as the “Kombi” was a transgenerational classic in the making, having brought a fresh approach to vans and people movers to the middle class of the 1950s and ‘60s, only to have the counterculture (including hippie) movements of the latter ‘60s reappropriate it. The same applies to the original VW Beetle.

The Beetle was an around-Australia-trial champion from the beginning, helping cement its reputation for durability and reliability. The same applies to the Ford Escort (1969-1981), which aced the world of rally sport in a big way even after production ceased in Australia to make way for the Ford Laser.

From the first to the last, the Ford Falcon (1960-2016) and Holden Commodore (1978-2017) have also enhanced their reputation on the racetrack in front of sport-obsessed Australians, as have certain generations of the Holden Monaro (1968- 1971), Holden Torana (1969 LC to 1976 LX) and Chrysler Charger (1971-1978).

Now, combine popularity, cultural significance, and motorsport success with notoriety, and that seems to supercharge a model’s standing.

In the early 1970s, the high-performance versions of the Falcon (GT), Monaro (GTS), Torana (GTR/GTR-XU1) and Charger (E38/E49) were vilified by many for being overpowered and so too dangerous, especially when "reckless youth" were involved.

And in a different way for different reasons, so were the Holden HQ/HJ/HX/ HZ Sandman panel vans (1974-1980) and their ilk, tapping in on the surf culture in the era of sexual liberation that frightened many parents back then, and adds to these cars’ coolness today.

Yet there are other factors that determine an ordinary car’s classic status over time. Although praised on most fronts when new, the Leyland P76 (1973-1974) failed against the Kingswood and Falcon for select reasons, including for poor quality on early models and divisive styling, but its misguided ambition and quirkiness have since endeared it to Australians, making it a true classic today. Similarly, it appears the AU Falcon is gaining in appreciation.

Ironically, quirkiness that achieves popularity is often reframed as innovation. This is exactly why cars like the original Mini (1961-1979), a city-car marvel that was also incredibly fun to drive, the Datsun 1600/510 (1968-1972) as the first affordable BMW-style engineered medium-sized family car from Japan, and the Subaru Brumby (1978-1994) as a compact 4x4 ute, have all been so beloved for so long. Going beyond the sum of their parts, all offered something new and sparked something in their owners.

And then there is the sheer competence factor. These are the trusted, durable, reliable, and dependable cars that slowly but surely attained classic status through respectability.

We’re talking about the Toyota LandCruiser from the earliest FJ40s through to the present day, as well as generations of its Nissan Patrol nemesis. Both helped build Australia in massive civil engineering projects like the Snowy Mountains Scheme.

Finally, there is fashion. Fads come and go, especially in the automotive industry, resulting in models that we just cannot buy new today. Remember when you could buy a sporty coupe version of a regular family car like the Datsun 180B (1972-1977) called the SSS?

Honda’s Integra (1986-2006) and Prelude (1979-2002) grew out of the Civic (1973-now) and Accord (1977-now) respectively. And the famous Toyota Celica (1970-2006) was really the humble Toyota Corona (1964-1987) underneath.

So, what should we look for in 2025 as the next future classics?

What’s going up?

In 2025, there are some conspicuous future classics out there worth keeping an eye on. Or snapping up for a rainy day. All seem to possess a combination of the factors that put the extra in just ordinary.

FORD TERRITORY (2004-2016)

History’s sole Australian-made SUV is in the doldrums. Considered the world’s best for an embarrassingly long time, the Falcon-based crossover still delivers yet costs pennies. Just avoid the diesel and stick to the legendary Barra engine.

HOLDEN ZB COMMODORE (2018-2020)

Okay, this is a German Opel Insignia with the wrong badge, but it is a fun, roomy, safe, and economical family car. Honed and tuned in Australia, even Holden diehards will admit it is a sweetie.

FORD BA/FG FALCON (2002-2016)

Another world-class sedan with muscle, refinement, room, toughness, and reliability hewn in. As they disappear, there will never be another like this, ever. Not a dud in the range, and so much better than most people realise.

HOLDEN RG2 COLORADO (2015-2020)

The Brazilian-developed, Thai-made, Holden-tuned RG Colorado Series II was the last of the breed, as well as the last successful Holden, meaning its (eventual) collectability seems assured. If you can find a tidy one.

MITSUBISHI MAGNA (1985-2005)

A national treasure, the 1985 original’s wide body changed mid-sized cars forever, and over three generations, remained sophisticated. Huge exports, a brilliant wagon and a dynamic all-wheel drive option were among its many achievements. FORD FOCUS (2002-2022) Germany’s Focus shone with bold design and athleticism, but Australians barely bothered. Still, the same applied to its 1970s Escort ancestor, which are big bucks now. Lesson: small Euro Fords appreciate… eventually. But avoid the 2011-2015 Powershift auto.

MAZDA NC MX-5 (2005-2014)

The third-generation MX-5 disappointed purists by being larger and heavier than before, but today its solidity, space, and practicality make the NC the perfect droptop bargain. Yet prices are down so time to pounce.

HYUNDAI VELOSTER (2011-2022)

With one door on the driver’s side and two on the passenger side, the asymmetrical Veloster tried but failed to revive sports coupe sales. Designed for practical fun, this misfit has future classic written all over it.

HOLDEN ADVENTRA V8 (2003-2007)

A flop, the V8/AWD-only VY Adventra was Holden’s only-ever Aussie SUV but struggled against soaring fuel prices and Ford’s fierce Territory, so nobody cares… yet. Avoid the V6 in the VZ. Surely a bona fide future classic.

TOYOTA 86/SUBARU BRZ (2012–)

Toyota money, Subaru knowhow and visionary engineering make these fraternal twins a sure-fire future classic, with rear-drive balance, miles of smiles, and true low-cost running. So loveable. AUDI TT (1999-2014) Prices are surprisingly low for Audi’s Bauhaus beauty, combining rich design, solid engineering, and surprising practicality. The 2006 redesign is the pick for keener drivers. The TT looks, feels, and drives special.

TOYOTA RAV4 (1994-2000)

Inspired by the first Suzuki Vitara – another collectible – the car-derived RAV4 was better to drive and then started the SUV craze. But only the original possessed a breezy, adventurous spirit, since abandoned by later iterations. A historical collector’s classic.

HOLDEN CREWMAN (2003-2007)

A dual-cab Holden ute sounded like a sure-fire success, but it sold poorly against the rising tide of jacked-up one tonne diesel utes. Another unique Aussie creation, prices are low, but the collectors will swoop – probably very soon. NISSAN 350Z (2003-2009) Nissan revived the Z after a new-millennium hiatus, bringing suave, confident design and brutish V6 performance. Not for the faint hearted, it remains a challenging but fun sports coupe for extroverts. Buy now. Have you seen 280Z/300ZX prices lately?

VW GOLF GTI MANUAL (1976-2020)

Though not the first, the Golf GTI popularised the hot-hatch concept in the ‘70s. Any are worth collecting, and with today’s Mk8.5 being auto-only, prices of manual models will creep up. Our pick is the Mk7/7.5.

TOYOTA TARAGO (1990-2000)

The first Tarago of the 1980s was a futuristic-looking van that wasn’t great to ride in. But the 1990s egg-shaped Tarago II was a brilliant rear-drive/AWD premium people mover with great design and engineering. A true neoclassic. Snap one up. You’ll be glad.