How quickly will EV sales continue to rise?

New car sales figures released in early July show that the gap between electric and petrol-powered vehicles is closing, accounting for 23.3 per cent of total market volume versus 25 per cent, respectively.

Achieved during a month that broke all records with 140,058 registrations, this translates to 32,583 new vehicles sold last month.

A jump of 146.9 per cent compared to the same period last year means that nearly one-in-four new vehicles registered were electric.

To put that in perspective, at the end of 2025, EVs were at 8.3 per cent, versus nearly 40 per cent for petrol, representing a three-fold increase.

Of course, external forces have driven EV growth.

In what has been a perfect storm for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, EV choices have multiplied and prices have kept falling as cheaper models like the Geely EX2 arrive. In addition to this, fuel price fluctuations due to severely restricted oil supplies resulting from the Middle East conflict has been a big factor as well.

So when fuel prices start to return to pre-2026 levels, will demand for EVs settle back down again?

Mazda Australia Managing Director, Vinesh Bhindi, seems to echo the general industry consensus that EV market share will return somewhere closer to the circa-10 per cent mark over time, but will also continue to rise in the longer term, especially with Federal Government incentives like the Fringe Benefits Tax exemption encouraging take up.

“EV sales have grown, but that’s because of fuel supply issues,” he said last month. “More EV choices (will help), and it’s great that the government has continued to provide clarity with the Fringe Benefits Tax bonus.”

That said, with ever-expanding EV charging infrastructure, combined with updated models offering improved battery range arriving regularly, the sales momentum that EVs have accrued in recent months means that they are now in serious consideration for more consumers than ever before.

This is supported by a report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in May, stating that electrified vehicle purchases (meaning both EVs and hybrids) have hit a tipping point globally due precisely to cost competitiveness – including purchase price, running costs and servicing costs.

“The increasing cost-competitiveness of EVs, along with tighter carbon dioxide and fuel economy standards, are poised to drive market growth, pushing up the share of EVs in global car sales to around 50 per cent in 2035 in the IEA’s exploratory scenarios,” it said.

“By contrast, the share of ICE cars continues to shrink in all scenarios.”

This is reflected in the June top 10 sales chart, which sees an unprecedented number of EVs making the list.

After a dip in sales, US car-maker Tesla saw a recovery, with 8072 Model Ys sold, representing a jump of 133 per cent over the same month last year.

This puts the electric SUV in league of the Holden VT-era Commodore’s late-1990s/early-2000s heyday, when it smashed record with 9000-plus registrations on four occasions, peaking with 9667 sales in October 2002.

While three predominantly diesel-powered utes were in the second, third and seventh spots (Ford Ranger at 5999, Toyota HiLux at 5175 and Isuzu D-Max at 2740 units), the numbers four to six positions were occupied by the BYD Sealion 7 EV (4730), Toyota RAV4 hybrid (4115) and BYD Shark 6 plug-in hybrid ute (3398).

Rounding out the top 10 were three small SUVs with varying electrification choices: the Hyundai Kona petrol and hybrid with 2505 sales, BYD Atto 2 EV with 2482 sales and GWM Haval Jolion petrol and hybrid with 2446 sales.

Keep in mind that, in February this year before the Middle East conflict escalated, even the most wildly optimistic sales forecasts put EV market share at around 10 per cent tops.